Trade Strategy 06.25.15


Following fruitless all-night talks, Greece and its creditors resumed debt discussions in Brussels this morning, aimed at preventing the country from defaulting on its loans and exiting the eurozone. Reports earlier suggested that Athens had until 5 a.m. ET to come up with a workable economic reform plan or face a “take it or leave it” creditor proposal. Today’s EU summit is seen as the last chance to hammer out a deal before Greece must pay €1.6B to the IMF on Monday.


Having reached Cycle Target of 2121 and subsequently failing to extend beyond CD2 high, price proceeded to decline through the prior session reaching the Average Cycle Decline and projected Low of Day level 2100.50. Daily Trade Strategy 06.24.15.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Cycle Decline is in place, therefore the next rally could begin at any time. Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22; Possible HOD = 2125.50 based upon penetration of CD3 high; Possible LOD = 2099.50 based upon average decline.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: July (U) Contract

Scenario 1: Having reached the average decline in prior session, the initial target on rally (bounce) is 2111 – 2112.50 3D CPZ. This zone has been a key over/under this week, so the bulls need to capture and convert this zone. Above this zone is 2116 – 2118 STATX Zone…Shorts are anticipated to be “squeezed” above this zone targeting 2125 projected HOD.

Scenario 2: Price has bounce to key 2112 level in overnight trade…Failure to convert this level and subsequent violation of 2106 Central Pivot forces a retest of PL (2099.00). Violation of this level expands downside initially to 2096.50 – 2094.25. Below this level measures 2090.25, then 2087.50 – 2084.50 Range Breakdown Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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