Fed officials struck a dovish tone in their most recent discussions about monetary policy, while at the same time setting the groundwork for future rate hikes, according to minutes of the FOMC meeting in June. All but one of the 10 voting members said they needed more evidence that “economic growth was sufficiently strong and labor market conditions had firmed enough to return inflation to the Committee’s longer-run objective over the medium term.”
Price continued to whipsaw in prior session with a downward bias as traders and investors grapple with geo-political events. Trading halt on NYSE added to down slide as potential cyber-attack rumored as possible cause for disruption. All-in-all, traders took it is stride testing the lower end of range for a “secure-low” which is typical of Cycle Day 1.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2072.50; Possible LOD = 2037.50.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2049.75 and clears and converts 2063.50 “key marker”, THEN upside expectation targets 2068.25 – 2072.50 STATX Zone. Should price exceed PH (2074.75) then price extension targets 2085 handle.
Scenario 2: Violation of 2049.75 places bulls back on defense and bears on offense, targeting 2044.75…Further weakness below this level sets up for yest another test of 2035 handle and increased potential breakdown targeting 2025 handle.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee