Economy
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appears to have offered to meet most creditor demands in exchange for a new €53.5B bailout, after submitting an 11th-hour proposal to get fresh funds and avoid bankruptcy. Stocks across the globe are all toasting the news. The package of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases almost mirrors that from creditors on June 26, which was rejected by Greek voters in a July 5 referendum. Eurozone decision makers are set to assess the plan during crisis meetings on Saturday and Sunday. Euro +1.1% to $1.1162.
Trading
Prior Session trade saw price rally sharply during Globex Session to reach our stated upper target 2068 handle, only to give back all the overnight gains during the Day Session. This price action reminds me of one of the Greatest Tennis Rivalries during the 1990’s: Pete Sampras v. Andre Agassi. Two world-class players battling for tennis supremacy.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has already reached and exceeded Average Cycle Rally Target (2058.50) twice no less within same Cycle…So holding above 2058 handle will solidify this cycle’s positive bias.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2075.50 based upon penetration of CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2025.25 based upon violation of CD2 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Key Marker to convert is 2068 handle…IF price converts, THEN there is 65% chance of reaching upper Penetration Target 2075.50. Above this level and a potential major short squeeze could develop, which could expand price upwards to 2087 – 2097 STATX Zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2068.00) keeps price contained within this weeks wide trading range. Pullbacks would be anticipated to find renewed buy response with 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (2054.75 – 2052.75).Recall the 2053.50 has been and still is “Key Marker” for this past week.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee