Trade Strategy 08.06.15


Today’s Economic Calendar
Chain Store Sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Gallup US Payroll to Population
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet


Price gapped higher in early trade yesterday to reach and exceed projected HOD 2104.50 only to stall at 2106.76 SPOT and reverse lower finding responsive buyers at 2091.50 SPOT. Bulls orchestrated a “short squeeze” in classic style as Bears were not able to force liquidation in prior session below 2080, which was last Cycle Day 1 Low.

Price is holding bid above 2091.00 SPOT which is within Three Day Central Pivot Zone. We will mark this level as “Key Support” until violated. Today begins a new cycle…Currently bulls have control and will need to keep price above 2098.00 for higher and not relinquish 2091.00 handle.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2108; Possible LOD = 2085.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: If price can hold above 2091.00 SPOT and convert 2098.00 SPOT, THEN bulls can push higher targeting 2103.50, then 2108.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: IF price violates 2091 handle during cash session, THEN downside measures 2085.50, followed by 2082.50 – 2080.25 TargetMaster STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

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