Trade Strategy 08.07.15


All eyes on Wall Street will be on this morning’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which will be the first of two releases ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated September policy decision. Most economists expect employers to have added more than 220,000 workers in July, matching June’s job gains, and providing further signs of an improving economy. The report, which is also expected to show an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.3%, will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
3:00 PM Consumer Credit


Thursday’s trade session was perfect Cycle Day 1 (CD1) as price declined throughout the session to reach Violation Target of 2071.50. Selling was continuous and orderly ahead of key Non-Farm Payrolls Report today. Overnight trade is relatively quiet in advance of 8:30 ET announcement.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Trade today will be influenced by payrolls report, so we will outline the standard metrics for today’s Cycle Day 2 trade.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2092.50; Possible LOD = 2059.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above PL (2070.00) and subsequently converts 2083.00, THEN initial upside projects 2085.50, followed by 2088.25. Average Cycle Rally Target measures 2092.50.

Scenario 2: Violation of PL (2070.00) opens door for continued sell down targeting 2064.25, followed by 2059.00 CD2 Violation Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Leave a Reply