Trade Strategy 08.18.15

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales


Textbook Three-Day Cycle unfolding as price tested CD1 Low on CD2, then rallied to reach Average Cycle Target (2096.00) in prior session. In overnight trade price has continued upside price momentum to reach Cycle Penetration Target (2102.50) and KEY SPOT 2103.50 capping the move. Initial decline has begun which initially targets 2091.50 SPOT.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Cycle Targets have been achieved and exceeded to Penetration Level. Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Rneg = 21.50. Possible HOD = 2103.50; Possible LOD = 2075.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can maintain bid above PH (2100.50), THEN initial upside targets 2103.50 SPOT. Strength above this level measures 2108.00 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold bid above PH (2100.50) increase odds (63%) of initial decline of 10 handles targeting 2093.50. Violation of this level measures 2086.00 – 2084.25 Three Day Central Pivot Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


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