Trade Strategy 08.31.15



Market’s to a break (as I did) this past Friday, following a wild week of wide range, highly volatile trading. Traders and investors alike decided to spend some well deserved time away from the screens.

Price has now retraced better part of half (50%) of decline from highs…Bulls will need a follow-through week above 1998 SPOT into the long Labor Day Holiday to stem further losses. Bears will obviously be hunting for a downside break of 1950 SPOT.

Friday’s trade was as expected…quiet narrow range consolidation. Some weakness in overnight trade has pushed price down to 1963, which is top of 3D CPZ. We will use that price as initial support marker for today’s trade.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has exceeded Cycle Target, so price can trade either way today with NEUTRAL SPILL.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75, Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1992.00, Possible LOD = 1954.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price stays above 1963 SPOT, THEN further upside consolidation is expected with retest of 1982.00 SPOT. IF price can clear and convert this level and subsequently convert 1992.75, THEN upside can expand targeting 1998.00.

Scenario 2: Violation of 1963 SPOT opens door for decline initially targeting 1954.75 followed by 1946.50. Any violation of this level increases odds of expanded downside movement targeting 1934 Cycle Day 1 Low.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Leave a Reply