Investors are getting ready to digest one of the most significant data releases of the summer for its implications on the timing of the first rate hike since 2006. Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, the August non-farm payrolls report is the final read on monthly labor conditions before the Federal Reserve makes a decision on interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting. Economists expect employers to have added more than 220,000 workers in August, with unemployment ticking down a tenth of a percentage point to 5.2%.
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
Price continued to rally yesterday only to stop within 2 pts (MOE) of our projected target of 1975.50 at which time the decline began, reversing all gains and closing nears lows. Overnight trade continues the decline began in prior session currently trading at 1926 handle and Average Cycle Range Decline Target.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Expectation is for NORMAL SPILL DOWN as price probes for a new “secure cycle low”. Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report will be the wildcard for price direction…
Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.25; Possible HOD = 1954; Possible LOD = 1914.55.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently trading pre-cash open at Average Cycle Range Target 1926 handle…IF price can find a secure low at or near this level, THEN initial upside targets 1938.25, followed by 1942.50…Further strength above this level measures 1954 handle.
Scenario 2: Price is in firm decline pre-cash open…should this continue downside target measures 1914.50 CD1 Violation Target. Any further weakness below this level forces margin selling targeting 1903 deep STATX Zone Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS