Global equities were roaring higher at the time of writing following an uptick in eurozone GDP growth and contrasting German and Chinese trade data. While the data was good in Europe, it was poor in China, although the figures have no doubt sparked hopes of more loose economic policy in the country – hence the rise in stocks. However, oil was adding to yesterday’s sharp losses amid concerns about the economy – notwithstanding today’s equity markets – and flailing attempts to curb oversupply.
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
10:00 Labor market condition index
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
S&P e-mini pushed lower in Thursday’s trade as it was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) NORMAL SPILL DOWN. Successful test of 1910 KEY SPOT provided bulls with ample confidence that this Cycle’s Low was firmly secure, as price began the rally extending into Friday’s pre-holiday trade. Firm quiet consolidation trade Cycle Day 2 where NORMAL SPILL NEUTRAL/UP setup higher trade into today’s Session.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NORMAL SPILL UP is expected as price extends the rally which began from 1910 handle. Symmetrical AB=CD Formation projects very closely to key 1963 SPOT for target.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1963.00; Possible LOD = 1931.00.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price has broken above PH (1944.50) and vaulted past 1953.25 Penetration Target and very close to 1963 HOD Target. Strength will need to be maintained throughout cash-session for bulls to keep total control. Pullbacks will need to illicit stronger buy response above 1942 handle.
Scenario 2: Cycle Targets have been reached and exceeded above 1942 handle up to 1953.25. Any violation and conversion of 1942 handle will cap this current rally…Subsequent violation of 1931.00 KEY SPOT shifts control dynamics back to bear camp targeting 1916.25 – 1912.75 STATX Zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS