Trade Strategy 09.09.15


Japan’s Nikkei index has surged 7.7% amid a rally in global equities, helped by the prospect of corporate tax cuts, further stimulus in China and overselling. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to cut rates by 3.3 percentage points from 35% from next year and wants to eventually lower tax into the twenties as he looks to revive Japan’s stuttering economy.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
1:00 PM Results of $21B, 10-Year Note Auction

PTG Trading

S&P e-mini continued its rally in prior session to reach and exceed projected HOD (1963.00)…Actual HOD was 1968.75. Volatility though lower than recent extremes, it’s elevated enough to provide very good intra-day opportunities.

Overnight trade has price extending higher to reach 1988.00 KEY SPOT. Bulls have regained full control, so it will be important that pullbacks in price continue to illicit renewed buy response from KEY SPOTS, such as, 1972.50, 1963.00, 1953.00.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Residual bullish momentum has carried price higher above PH (1968.75)…Sellers will need to overcome current buying spree to effectuate a full spill down…Should buyers remain dominant, any pullback my be relatively shallow.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.25; Possible HOD = 1991.25; Possible LOD = 1972.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has extended gains in overnight trade to reach 1984.25 CD1 Penetration Level…Key Level to maintain bid above is PH (1968.75)…IF price holds above, buyers will firmly maintain control…

Scenario 2: Violation of PH (1968.75) on pullback shifts short-term dynamics back to bear camp…NORMAL SPILL DOWN for Cycle Day 1 (CD1), so expectation is for some magnitude decline once buyers run out of gas.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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