Trade Strategy 09.14.15


Lots of activity on tap for this week, so keep your chinstraps tightly fastened…FOMC…Joblexx Claims…Quadruple Options Expiration Witching.

Today’s Economic Calendar

No Economic Reports

PTG Trading

S&P e-mini (ES) ended last week’s trade Cycle (CD3) in fine fashion as expectation was for NORMAL SPILL UP. Following a neutral Open Range with no further selling apparent, bulls took control rallying price into lunchtime high…Mid afternoon pullback produced a higher low on first pullback…Members will recognize this pattern as our “Four-of-a-Kind” (4K) which held above the Open Range High (1936.75). Bullish alert was posted in the Trading Room as price action was shaping up for afternoon and closing rally. Post excerpt below:

[ Fri Sep 11 2015 11:39:57 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: I am NOW LEANING BUY SIDE
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 11:40:06 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: Let’s Be Bullish on 911
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 11:40:15 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: GO AMERICA!

We reiterated Buy Alert going into the closing rotation with potential for New High On The Close (NHOTC)…

[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:36:28 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: Long 44 Stop 42
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:38:34 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: GO AMERICA…RALLY INTO THE CLOSE
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:41:15 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: MiM FLIP; $+135mil to buy : NHOTC on TAP

Market on Close Buy Imbalance helped with the session’s final push higher…

[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:44:10 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: MOC 220M BUY
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:46:31 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: MOC BUY 550M
[ Fri Sep 11 2015 15:46:44 (Eastern Daylight Time) ] David Dube: MOC BUY $ 590mil

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…End of week bullish momentum has pushed price higher to reach next target level at 1963.00. Though normal spill down is expected for today, price will need to work off the bullish bias before the decline begins.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1962.75 (Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1913.00 (Average Cycle Decline).

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is higher in overnight trade reaching next target level 1963 handle…Price will need to stay above PH (1951.75) to keep bullish bias intact.

Scenario 2: Odds (72%) favor a decline 10 handles or greater during today’s session…IF price violates and converts PH (1951.75), THEN pullback targets 1945 – 1940 3D CPZ. Weakness below 1940 SPOT measures 1932.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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