Trade Strategy 09.16.15


The drama surrounding this week’s FOMC meeting is unprecedented in recent memory, with the picture complicated by the recent market turbulence that may see the central bank hold off on raising rates. Many investors are hesitant to make big trades ahead of the decision, and U.S. economic data published on Tuesday did little to show which way the Fed will swing. While raising rates will almost certainly send waves through equity markets, not moving will likely keep the guessing game – and accompanying stock gyrations – alive for weeks to come. U.S. futures are cautious on the upcoming decision: Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s trend up move matched in swing magnitude Friday’s rally…This is called “symmetry” defined as “similarity or likeness in swing”. Using symmetry, traders can accurately calculate projections (not make predictions, which many like to do) for price targets…It’s Math NOT Magic.

Price have achieved or exceeded projected targets in prior Session, so today may unfold as a consolidation day as Mr. Market awaits tomorrow’s Fed Announcement on Interest Rates.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Today we will classify as NEUTRAL/”IFFY” SPILL..It is “too close to call” for directional influence…Though yesterday’s move was strong and methodical, targets have been reached, so the SPILL can tilt in either direction.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82% (achieved); Odds of Rally > 20 = 54% (achieved); Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1980 (Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1950.75 (3D CPZ)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently trading sideways in overnight and pre-open activity. IF price can hold above 1962 SPOT, THEN continued consolidation with upside lean is anticipated for today’s Session. Further strength targets 1978.75 – 1983.00 STAT X Zone.

Scenario 2: Should a pullback develop, anticipation is for relatively shallow decline, given yesterday’s strength…IF price violates and converts 1962 SPOT, THEN downside levels to be mindful of for buy response are: 1959.50…1954.25…1950.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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