Trade Strategy 09.17.15


It’s one of the most anticipated monetary policy decisions for years, with markets still unclear if the Federal Reserve this afternoon will unveil its first interest rate hike in almost a decade. Traders this week have been reluctant to make significant bets ahead of the decision, which is expected to reverberate throughout the global economy. Two months ago, it seemed almost certain that the Fed was going to raise rates in September, but turmoil in the financial markets and concerns about China’s economy may see the Fed wait until December for an increase. U.S. futures are all lower by 0.2% pending the announcement.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Jobless Claims & Housing Starts

PTG Trading

S&P emini has rallied 50 plus handles from the 9/15 low as FED DAY is here with Interest Rate Policy Decision looming. Prior Session saw early consolidation followed by continuation move higher to reach CD3 Penetration Target.

Overnight trade is relatively light volume, holding gains within narrow range above 1980 handle. Expectation is for continued light trade into the Cash Morning Session as traders/investors await 2 pm ET FOMC Announcement, followed by Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 pm ET.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range= 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.25; Possible HOD = 2007.50 (Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1950.26 (Average Cycle Range Decline).

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Current trend is bullish, so in order to keep trend intact, price needs to hold above 1976.00 SPOT. IF price can convert PH (1989.00), THEN initial upside projects 1992.75 – 1995.75 STATX Zone…Strength above this zone targets 2007.50 CD1 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Violation of 1976.00 SPOT threatens current bullish trend line…Lower support zone is marked between 1960.25 – 1966.50 where 3D CPZ and STATX Zone overlaps. Average Cycle Range Decline Target is at 1950.00 SPOT roundie.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee


*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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