Trade Strategy 09.21.15


Federal Reserve policymaker James Bullard said Saturday he argued against holding rates steady during the Fed’s policy meeting last week because he believed the economy had recovered enough to begin raising rates. Bullard also described the meeting as “pressure packed,” and said the decision to hold rates steady was “a close call.”

Today’s Economic Calendar

10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations

PTG Trading

Investors/Traders continued their “risk-off” selling spree Friday following Fed’s decision to not increase Federal Funds Rate. Price has probed lower to test 1936 – 1938 zone which is KEY PIVOT from 9.15.15, where the recent rally began. Successful test increase odds of strong snap-back rally which could carry to 1972 – 1975 Three-Day Central Pivot Zone.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Strong Odds (82%) of SPILL UP to reach CD1 Low (1972.00) fulfilling Bullish 3 Day Cycle.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1972.00; Possible LOD = 1936.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has successfully probed lower in overnight trade to 1936 – 1938 zone, increasing odds of a secure cycle low. Should this zone hold any additional testing during cash trade increases odds of strong rally which has potential energy to reach 1972 – 1975 3D CPZ and fulfilling 3 Day Cycle objectives.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1936 – 1938 zone will inflict significant pain to bulls, targeting 1931.50 SPOT, then 1920.50 deep statistical extreme. Below this level and long liquidation is inevitable.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


Leave a Reply