Trade Strategy 09.23.15


U.S. stock futures are pointing higher as they look to overcome another tough day in Asian markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.1% and the Hang Seng Index was off 3.4% after manufacturing data from China rekindled concerns on growth in the region. Indexes in Australia and South Korea were also lower, while markets in Japan were closed for a national holiday. European stocks are in a seesaw session with most major indexes not showing solid gains. All eyes are on Germany where one in six jobs is dependent upon the automobile industry in some way. Economists are busy trying to estimate the broad impact of the Volkswagen scandal on German GDP.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s Session was textbook Cycle Day 1 (CD1) as it was NORMAL SPILL DOWN probing for “secure cycle low” from which to stage next rally. Price hit the 1918.50 SPOT we had projected for lower target…

Overnight trade has tested and slightly exceeded prior low (1917.75) down to 1910.50 (ONL) and has since rallied 30 handles to 1940.50. This strength has already met or exceeded today’s odds (84%) for Cycle Day 2 (CD2) NORMAL NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Next price objective will be the 1947.25 Average Cycle Rally Target.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1950.75 (3 Day Central Pivot); Possible LOD = 1914.00 (STATX Zone).


***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has tested PL (1917.75) and has reversed with strong rally which ahs currently exceeded 30 handles…Price will need to stay above 1931.50 SPOT throughout the cash session with an upside objective of reaching 1947.25 Cycle Target.

Scenario 2: Bulls have regained control on current swing up off CD1 Low (1917.75)…Any pullback is expected to illicit buy response. Violation of 1930.00 Over/Under would shift trade dynamics back to bearish camp.


Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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