Trade Strategy 09.24.15


Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak this evening on “inflation dynamics and monetary policy” at the University of Massachusetts. Traders are particularly eyeing her comments on inflation, after the Fed held off on a rate hike last Thursday and stirred up new fears about deflation. Besides Yellen’s speech, there are a few key pieces of data which will be released today, including jobless claims, durable goods and new home sales.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
5:00 PM Janet Yellen speech

PTG Trading

Early overnight rally yesterday failed to continue during cash session, as price were locked in choppy rangebound trade…This failure for bulls to auction price higher continues to suggest potential for more weakness in coming days / weeks. Bulls will need to at minimum shift the current down trending 3 Day Central Pivot Zone back to a positive slope for chance for sustained upside rally.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently below CD1 Low (1917.75) in overnight trade…Price will need to close above this level during cash session to qualify for positive three-day rally.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1947.25 (Cycle Rally Target); Possible LOD = 1895.75 (CD3 Violation Target)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently testing 1910 handle in overnight trade…It is critical for bulls to respond aggressively and absorb supply…IF successful and price can recapture CD1 Low (1917.75), THEN odds are favorable to reach 1928.00 Central Pivot…Strength above this level opens door to 1938 – 1940 zone which has been hard resistance.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1910 handle opens door to continued selling with lower downside targeting 1905 followed by 1895.75 CD3 Violation Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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