Trade Strategy 09.25.15


Markets across the globe are on the rise after Fed Chair Janet Yellen eased concerns that last week’s decision to keep rates near zero had put off a rate rise for the foreseeable future. In yesterday’s speech at the University of Massachusetts, Yellen laid out her most detailed argument yet for raising rates in the coming months, stating that inflation pressures will build gradually over the next few years. World shares have largely been in the red since the Fed stood pat last Thursday, with investors interpreting the central bank’s caution as another worrying sign about the state of the global economy.

Traders are getting ready for the third and final reading of GDP for the second quarter – scheduled to be published this morning at 8:30 a.m ET. While the estimate was sharply adjusted upward to 3.7% in late August, most economists are not looking for another big revision. The report follows a terrible first quarter and comes in the wake of concerns that China’s slowdown could hurt the U.S.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Corporate Profits
9:15 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Monetary Policy
9:45 PMI Services Index Flash
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
1:25 PM Fed’s George: Monetary policy and Economic Policy

PTG Trading

Well, it took some additional follow-through trade in overnight to reach Cycle Target 1947.25 projected in prior Daily Trade Strategy 09.24.15. This completes this Cycle as today begins a new Cycle Day 1 with the NORMAL SPILL DOWN.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 – 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1947.25 (Cycle Rally Target); Possible LOD = 1897.00 (Average Cycle Decline)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Residual bullish momentum has push price above PH (1936.25) to reach Cycle Rally Target (1947.25). For continued bullish action price will need to hold above 1936.25 during cash session. IF this occurs, upside projects 1955.50 CD1 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Violation and reversal back down through PH (1936.25) will be first sign that price dynamics have shifted back to “sell-mode”. Levels to be mindful of for possible buy response are: 1931.50, 1928.25, 1924.00, 1918.50 SPOTS.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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