Trade Strategy 1.2.19

Markets
 
With the first trading session of the year on deck, investors are sketching their market predictions for 2019. Will the trade war continue? How about volatility on Wall Street? Oil prices and OPEC? Dollar downturn? Next steps for monetary policy? Effects of waning QE? Brexit tensions? How will the third year of Trump’s presidency and a new Congress shape the markets? Any other stock-related tea leaves?
 
Crude futures retreated to start the new year, falling as much as 2.2% to $44.41/bbl, amid concerns about a downturn in China that could squeeze demand for oil at a time when supply is in a big surplus. Russian production also hit a post-Soviet record in 2018, according to new figures, while there are fears about a resurgent glut fueled by booming U.S. production and America’s waivers for buyers of Iranian crude.
 
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -2.8%. China -1.2%. India -1%
In Europe, at midday, London -1.8%. Paris -2.4%. Frankfurt -1.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -2%. S&P -2%. Nasdaq -2.6%. Crude -1.8% to $44.61. Gold +0.7% to $1290.50. Bitcoin +2.7% to $3807. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.66%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index

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S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Overnight trade had price initially start with an up move, only to reverse, pushing down to 2451…ATR (10) Range Projection. Price is currently below both Daily and 3 Day Pivot Zones, so bulls have their work cut-out to begin the new year.

CD3 Range High = 2509.50          CD3 Range Low = 2464.00          CD3 Range Avg = 57.00 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2486, THEN potential upside targets 2498 – 2501.50 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2486, THEN downside potential targets 2455 – 2451 range low.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2522.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2451.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2472.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2486.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2527.00; 10 Day Average True Range 70.00; VIX: 27.50

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 …Overnight trade had price initially start with an up move, only to reverse, pushing down to 6179.50…ATR (10) Range Projection. Price is currently below both Daily and 3 Day Pivot Zones, so bulls have their work cut-out to begin the new year.

CD3 Range High = 6346.50         CD3 Range Low = 6194.00          CD3 Range Avg = 192.00

Scenario 1: IF price can regain CD1 Low (6243.75), THEN upside potential targets 6294.50 – 6307 3D CPZ.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below  CD1 Low (6243.75), THEN downside potential targets 6193 – 6179.50 range low.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6360.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6179.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6243.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6294.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6434.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 207.00; VIX: 27.50

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN