Trade Strategy 1.20.17

Markets

It’s the final countdown… Last minute preparations are underway for Inauguration Day, as Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. Executive actions are also in focus as Trump looks to roll back a number of President Obama’s policies on his first day in office. But with a lack of exact details and priorities, Wall Street and the dollar have been trading in a tight range in recent sessions.

In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China +0.7%. India -1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +1.3% to $52.78. Gold -0.2% to $1199.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 2.5%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar 

9:00 Fed’s Harker Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech

PTG Trading

Bears were successful in prior session forcing sell-stops below 2258 – 60 zone pushing price down to 2253, near Average Decline  (2251) for Cycle Day 1. Bulls came roaring back, pushing price back to 2265 level now in pre-cash trade. Net effect is neutral price action into options expiration. We had opined in DTS Briefing 1.18.17 “Direction may be resolved into next week once traders get past this month’s expiration.” 

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Expectation for today is for more neutral as final option premiums decay to worthlessness. Key price boundaries remains 2250 – 2270 which have been for past month.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2273.52; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2255.23; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2253.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2262.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2283.63; 10 Day Average True Range: 12.77

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2017 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Bulls still need to clear and convert 2270 decisively to upper support to get upside expansion. Targets are: 2275.25…2280…2283.50.

Scenario 2:  Bears must re-convert 2260 handle to lower resistance and go after 2250 spot to get longs worried. They were marginally successful in prior session, but could not hold the lows.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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