Trade Strategy 1.25.16

Posted on by January 25, 2016
Markets
Fund managers that were relaxed about slightly tighter monetary policy last month are wondering whether that was complacent, as concerns surface over whether they’re now operating without the safety net they had grown attached to during the post-financial crisis. “It is reasonable for investors to wonder whether Fed’s December rate hike was a policy error,” admits Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management. The FOMC’s January policy meeting begins tomorrow.
In Asia, Japan +0.9% to 17111. Hong Kong +1.4% to 19340. China +0.8% to 2936. India +0.2% to 24486.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris flat. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -3.1% to $31.19. Gold +0.8% to $1104.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps 2.02%

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Today’s Economic Calendar

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

PTG Trading

This past 3 Day Cycle was capped off nicely as price reached 1902.50; HOD Range Projection outlined in Prior DTS Report 1.22.16 Overnight trade has seen no further upside progression as price is trading within a relatively narrow 16 handle range. Bulls will need to convert 1902.50 for further upside expansion of last week’s recovery performance.

Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Current 10 Day Average True Range ATR (10) stands at 45.58…Volatility remains elevated, so stay vigilant and disciplined with trade risk. Residual bullish momentum may take price higher to reach 1908.00 SPOT 3 Day Cycle Target before the next decline begins.

HOD Range Projection = 1921.50; CD1 Maximum Penetration Level = 1912.75; LOD Range Projection = 1858.50; Average Cycle Range Decline = 1865.50; 3D Central Pivot Zone = 1867.50 – 1860.00.

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH( 1902.25), THEN upside objectives are: 1908.00 SPOT, 1912.75; 1921.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1902.25) and subsequent violation of 1886.00 SPOT opens door to begin this cycle’s decline, initially targeting 1879.00 followed by 1870.00; 1865.50; 1858.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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