In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -1%. Crude -3.5% to $30.26. Gold -0.3% to $1116.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.00%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $15B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
S&P e-mini has reached 3 Day Cycle Target (1894.00) and HOD Projection (1895.75) in yesterday’s Session. Today is FED Day, so market participants will essentially be in a holding pattern until the 2 pm release. Average True Range (10) continues to hold steady at 44.50 handles and correlation factor of 0.97 versus Crude Oil. Range overnight is relatively narrow at 12.25 handles.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL IFFY…Since price has reached cycle price objective and with FOMC on tap, price action could take a turn in either direction based upon markets interpretation of forward comments release, so we will defer to the greater collective intelligence for next directional move.
Range Projections and Key Levels:
HOD = 1895.75; LOD = 1841.25; CD3 Max Penetration Level = 1912.00; CD3 Max Violation Level – 1837.75; Central Pivot = 1879.75; 3 Day Central Pivot Zone = 1884.25 = 1880.25.
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds 1879.75 Central Pivot and subsequently clears and converts PH (1899.75), THEN upside range expansion objective measures layered levels between 1904.00 – 1912.00.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1899.75) and subsequent violation and conversion of 1879.75 SPOT opens door to deeper downside move initially targeting 1868.00 (CD1 Low)…Below this level measures 1862.00 – 1860.00, with deep statistical extremes (STATX) between 1855.50 – 1849.75…LOD projection and CD3 Max Violation levels are 1841.25 – 1837.75 respectively.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS