Trade Strategy 1.3.19

Markets
 
The volatility continues… After closing the first trading session of the year in the green, U.S. stock futures plunged overnight as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) cut its quarterly revenue forecast for the first time since 2007. The unprecedented move in the Tim Cook era was prompted by a downturn in iPhone sales in China, which represents nearly 20% of Apple’s revenue. It was also the latest sign of broader economic malaise in the world’s second largest economy, fueled by trade tensions with the U.S.
 
Traders across Asia are still trying to piece together a “flash crash” that rippled across the region overnight, with the Australian dollar sinking 8% and Turkish lira tanking 10% against the Japanese yen.
 
It’s a rough day for Apple (AAPL) suppliers after the tech giant cut its Q1 revenue guidance to $84B (from a previous range of $89B-$93B).
 
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.3%. China flat. India -1.1%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -1.5%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.6%. S&P -1.7%. Nasdaq -2.7%. Crude -0.7% to $46.20. Gold +0.5% to $1290.10. Bitcoin +0.5% to $3826. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 2.64%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:
 

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2456.25. Average Range for CD1 is 59.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2522.50       CD1 Range Low = 2461.50         CD1 Range Avg = 59.75 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2475, THEN upside potential targets 2487 – 2495 pivot zones.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2475, THEN downside potential targets 2457 – 2452 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2019 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2529.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2418.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2495.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2520.00; 10 Day Average True Range 67.00; VIX: 23.25

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6203.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 191.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 6379.50          CD1 Range Low = 6199.75          CD1 Range Avg = 191.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 6275, THEN upside potential targets 6306 – 6312 3D Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 6275, THEN downside potential targets 6203 – 6199.75 CD1 Average Range Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2019 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6392.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6048.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6309.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6377.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 203.00; VIX: 23.25

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN