Markets have recovered following initial panic after Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq. Down by nearly 400 points overnight, DJIA futures have recouped all of their losses, while oil has given back gains and gold is off its highs.
In Asia, Japan -1.6%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China -1.2%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.1% to $62.77. Gold +0.5% to $1582.10. Bitcoin +5.7% to $8312.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.8%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
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Today is a Cycle Day 1 (CD1), beginning of “new 3-day cycle” Normal expectation is for some magnitude decline with an average range decline measuring 22.25 handles or 3232.25.
Note: There will be times when trade action is bullish strong with shallow or even no decline, so we’ll need to make adjustments throughout the trade session. Determining whether the cycle day is unfolding “normal” or “aberrant” early in session will be “key” for tactical trade decisions.
Prior Session Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Price failed to continue the auction higher after fulfilling Cycle Target Objectives, which sets up potential deeper decline IF price stays below 3238 (Line-in-Sand) AND violates 3232 handle. From a Volume Profile perspective, there is a Bearish Imbalance that is in need of completion between 3230 – 3220 zone.
***BREAKING ALERT: 7:00 pm est Price has declined to 3196 CD1 STATISTICAL EXTREME VIOLATION LEVEL during Globex Trading on reports that US Airbase in Iraq was struck by missiles. Geo-Political Events are always a “wild-card” for normal Cycle expectations.
Bullish & Bearish Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Scenarios (Normal Conditions)
Bull Scenario: IF Price Clears and Converts Prior High (3254.50), THEN upside targets 3264 – 3267 CD1 Penetration Zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Price Violates and Converts Prior Low (3226.00), THEN downside targets 3213.50 – 3209.25 CD1 Violation Zone. Statistical Extreme Violation Level measures 3196 handle.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 8812 (FULFILLED & EXCEEDED). Average Range for CD1 is 95.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%
CD1 Range High =8838.50 CD1 Range Low = 8774.00 CD1 Range Avg = 95.00
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 8830, THEN initial upside targets 8875 – 8895 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 8830, THEN initial downside targets 8810 – 8795 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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