Trade Strategy 10.01.15


Global equities continued where they left off yesterday and were higher at the time of writing despite tepid manufacturing PMI data out of China and Europe. Still, Chinese PMI did improve even if manufacturing continued to contract, raising hopes that the slump is bottoming out. In Europe, a rebound in mining stocks – no doubt aided by Glencore’s recovery – and gains in the automotive sector have helped boost shares.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Auto sales
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
2:30 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

Powerful rally off double-bottom lows vaulted price to reach projected Cycle Rally Target Zone between 1908.50 – 1910 highlighted in prior DTS Report 09.30.15. Market on Close (MOC) saw a huge buy imbalance of nearly $3B with end of quarter “window dressing”.

Overnight trade has price extending higher to 1928.50 CD2 Penetration Level. We will mark this SPOT as KEY RESISTANCE for cash session.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1928.50; Possible LOD = 1887.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has extended above PH (1910.50) in pre-cash session…Bulls will need to keep strong bid above this level to continue the current rally. Initial target and marked resistance is 1928.50 SPOT. Strength above this level targets 1950 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PH (1910.50) sets in motion a corrective pullback from extended highs (1928.50)…1908.50 – 1910.00 zone is expected to illicit an initial buy response. Should this fail to materialize in a meaningful way, down projects 1898.50 SPOT down to 1888.50 3D CPZ.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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