Trade Strategy 10.02.15


Leading equity markets were broadly higher at the time of writing ahead of the U.S. September jobs report this morning. Economists expect the growth in nonfarm payrolls to have accelerated to 203,000 from 173,000 in August and for the unemployment rate to have held steady at 5.1%. Investors are eyeing the report to try to discern the impact it will have on the Fed’s decision on whether to raise interest rates this year or next.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 Fed’s Rosengren: Macro Prudential Monetary Policy
8:45 Fed’s Harker: “Credit and payment markets”
9:00 Fed’s Kocherlakota: Macro Prudential Monetary Policy
10:00 Factory Orders
11:00 Fed’s Mester: Macro Prudential Monetary Policy
12:00 PM Stanley Fischer at Boston Fed Conference
1:00 PM Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s Session played out pretty much as expected…Back n Fill following strong upside trend day…Overnight trade is slightly higher, relatively quiet ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payroll Report.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Targets have been met and exceeded for this Cycle, so today is “jump-ball” NEUTRAL SPILL with Employment Report.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54% (both fulfilled and exceeded); Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1940.50 (CD3 Penetration Level; Possible LOD = 1894.00 (3D CPZ).

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently positioned within prior day’s range…Penetration and conversion of PH (1929.50) expands upside targeting 1932.00 – 1936.50 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1929.50) keeps price within prior range, which is fairly wide. Initial support zone between 1908.50 – 1912.25. Violation and conversion if this zone targets 1903.00 SPOT, then 1898.50 – 1894.00 3D CPZ.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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