Trade Strategy 10.03.14

Forced margin liquidation propelled S&P e-mini (ES) price lower in prior session hitting the TargetMaster Price of 1921.50 and Max Range (22.25) observed on Cycle Day 2. With recent increased volatility, Average Daily Range continues to expand, so it is vitally important that you know what average and max price ranges are expected to be, otherwise you will be left in the proverbial “trading dust”.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3); Odds of 3 Day Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3 Day Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Range = 21.25; Possible High on CD3 = 1950.50 – 1953.50 zone based upon Average 3 Day Cycle. Possible Low on CD3 = 1910.25 based upon violation of CD2 Low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price has rallied off deep extreme low in prior session to reach the current Three-Day Central Pivot Zone (3D CPZ) and within a whisker of Average Cycle Rally. Any further upside potential will need to penetrate and convert the 3D CPZ (1948.00 – 1950.00). IF this event occurs, THEN extended upside measures 1958.00 – 1959.00 TargetMaster Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: Price has already rallied to the 3D CPZ and Cycle Target…This zone will be formidable to clear…IF price fails to find sufficient buying to convert this zone, THEN additional selling may unfold…Lower levels to be mindful of on weakness will be 1938 – 1940 High Volume Node (HVN). Violation of this zone propels price back down to 1932 – 34 zone for potential buy response.

Trade Strategy: With intra-day volatility on the rise with swings of increased magnitude in either direction, our main trade strategy will be to remain open and flexible to two-side trade, both long/short from key Decision Point Pivots (DPP). As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Six
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.


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