Officially joining the 0% bond club, the U.S. Treasury sold a new government security on Monday containing a three-month maturity and a yield of zero for the first time on record. In essence, buyers gave a free short-term loan to the government in exchange for a highly liquid debt instrument for their portfolio. The result adds to the diminishing expectations – stoked by Friday’s disappointing jobs report – that the Fed will keep interest rates at basement levels throughout 2015
8:30 Gallup US ECI
8:30 International Trade
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:15 Fed’s George: “Payments System”
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction
3:30 PM Fed’s Williams: Economic Outlook
S&P 500 e-mini (ES) came roaring back following two consecutive failed 3 Day Cycles. The bullish nature inherent within market cycles do not like back to back failures which are rare in occurrence, so in fitting style the current rally off the 9/29 low has recovered the past two cycle failures.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL UP…Price has met and exceeded this current Cycle Target 1969.00. So today is expected to be a “back n fill” type trade with bullish undertones.
Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.75; Possible HOD = 1988.50 based upon CD2 Penetration Level; Possible LOD = 1957.25 based upon max average range on CD2.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF bullish momentum continues above PH (1980.00), THEN upside targets 1985.75 – 1990.75 with 1988.50 CD2 Penetration Level.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1980.00) stops bullish expansion with expectation of back n fill trade to consolidate recent gains. Initial buy response is expected at following SPOTS…1964.25, 1958.75, 1957.25 – 1956 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS