Trade Strategy 10.07.15


Oil prices are on the rise again following a near 5% jump on Tuesday. The surge is being triggered by data from the American Petroleum Institute showing a 1.2M barrel decrease in crude stocks last week, expectations of increasing demand from the Energy Information Administration, and comments by OPEC chief Abdalla Salem el-Badri anticipating big cuts to oil investment. The commodity has now rallied more than 27% from its August low, and is up 2% at $49.50/bbl. U.S. oil market figures from the EIA are also due at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $21B, 10-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

PTG Trading

Yesterday unfolded pretty much as outlined in prior DTS 10.06.15. Range “back n fill” consolidation Neutral Day. Price held 1964.25 lower support zone and capped 1976 upper resistance zone. In overnight trade price has pushed higher to reach 1985.75 upper target.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NEUTRAL/DOWN SPILL…This Cycle has been powerful with lots of momentum…Volatility is also on the rise in overnight trade with a wide range. Cycle targets have been either met or exceeded, so today could be a confusing session with lots of cross-currents.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 1985.75; Possible LOD = 1967.00

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can clear and convert PH (1982.25), THEN initial upside extends to 1985.75, then 1990.00, with extreme measured at 1994 CD3 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1982.25) initially targets 1972.50…Violation of this level increases odds of deeper pullback targeting 1967.00. Breakdown of this level opens door to 1962 – 1960 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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