Equity markets are looking to shift their focus back to corporate results, with Alcoa (NYSE:AA) kicking off the third-quarter earnings season before today’s opening bell. Earnings could move the bar for stocks more than anything else, especially because of their higher-than-average valuations, but investors appear to have less insight than usual, as companies have been particularly tight-lipped ahead of the customary reporting period.
OPEC’s oil production rose to record highs in September, rising by 160K barrels to 33.6M bpd, underscoring the challenges the group faces as it seeks to curtail output. “At this stage, it is difficult to assess how the OPEC supply cut, if enforced, will affect market balances,” the IEA said in its latest monthly report. Yesterday, WTI pushed above $51/bbl after Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to join an output freeze, but not one world producer has willingly taken one solitary barrel off the table this fall.
In Asia, Japan +1% to 17024. Hong Kong -1.3% to 23549. China +0.6% to 3065. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -0.8% to $50.94. Gold -0.3% to $1256.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 1.76%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
This cycle’s rally reached (2163.50) upper edge of Statistical Extreme Zone (STATX) which fulfills upside cycle targets. Bulls continue to control the action but have not been able to complete shift to upside breakout of multi-day range.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…With upside cycle targets having been hit, price has pulled back off prior highs down to 2152.75 with is the 3 Day Central Pivot. Bulls will need to continue to hold this level as support to keep current sentiment intact.
Range Projections and Key Levels
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price can hold at or above 2152.75 THEN initial upside objective will be to convert 2158 handle to support. Should this occur upside is open to retest PH (2163.50). CD3 Penetration Level is marked at 2168.00.
Scenario 2: Initial Sign of Weakness (SOW) would be failing to hold 2152.75 as support and converting to resistance. IF this unfolds THEN downside initially targets 2149.75 – 2148 STATX Zone, followed by 2143.00 CD3 Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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