Gold climbed to a seven-week high today bolstered by a weaker dollar and continuing expectations the Fed won’t hike interest rates in 2015. “Markets are continuing to price in doubt about a Fed rate hike in December despite Vice Chairman Fischer’s weekend comments,” said Ric Spooner, chief analyst at CMC Markets. The yellow metal gained as much as 0.9% to $1,166.80 an ounce, the highest since August 24, following a 1.6% advance in the previous session.
U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are still likely to raise interest rates this year but that is “an expectation, not a commitment”, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said at an IMF meeting in Peru. “Considerable uncertainties” still surround the U.S. economic outlook, including the drag on exports from slowing global growth, low investment caused by the decline in oil prices and the recent “disappointing” drop in U.S. jobs
8:10 Fed’s Lockhart Speech
10:30 Fed’s Evans: Monetary Policy
4:30 PM Fed’s Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard: Economic Outlook
Banks and Bond Market are closed in observance of Columbus Day Holiday. Futures are open but expectation is for a very quiet trade session with no major movement, as price has reached this Cycle’s Price Target of 2011.75 and consolidating near the highs. Current support is marked at 1998.00 SPOT, with 3 Day Central Pivot Zone 1994.00 – 1990.75.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NEUTRAL SPILL…Price has reached Cycle Target 2011.75, so with holiday quiet session expected, relatively little movement within the current 3 Day Range between 1998.00 – 2014.00.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of 3D rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2026.25 based on conversion of prior high; Possible LOD = 1994.00 based upon decline to 3D CPZ.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2014.00), THEN upside can expand to 2016, followed by 2026 CD3 Penetration Target.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert PH (2014.00), THEN expectation will be for pullback with 3 Day Range with support marked at 1998.00. Violation and conversion of this level opens door for decline targeting 1994.00 3D Pivot.Below this level measures 1990.75, 1987.00, 1984.25 CD3 Violation Level.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS