The Federal Reserve is in the spotlight with the central bank due to release minutes from its meeting in September this afternoon. The text will be closely analyzed to see how close the three dissenting Fed members from the last FOMC meeting were from reeling in more support for a 25 basis point increase. Though the market is pricing in a ~60% likelihood of a rate hike at the December 14th meeting, economists note that there is plenty of data to be released yet, which could push a rate hike into 2017. It’s a foregone conclusion that the Fed will skip any rate action at the November meeting with the wildcard presidential election only a week later.
Oil prices are holding the $50 level in early trading, despite uncertainty over the willingness of Russia to cut down on production levels. President Vladimir Putin is on record supporting a coordinated cut with OPEC, but it’s unclear to some market watchers if Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF) will cooperate. Brent crude is up 0.67% to $52.76, while WTI crude futures are 0.40% higher at $50.97.
In Asia, Japan -1.1% to 16840. Hong Kong -0.6% to 23407. China -0.3% to 9680. India +0.1% to 28082.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +0.4% to $50.97. Gold +0.1% to $1257.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield Flat at 1.78%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Though normally looking for a decline on CD1 yesterday’s sell down fulfilled and exceeded all lower cycle decline expectations. As such odds favor at least a relief type bounce today back to the Central Pivot (2138.75) Bulls and Bears will need to square off in search of new price agreement (balance) so volatility is expected to remain elevated. STAY DISCIPLINED and FLEXIBLE.
Range Projections and Key Levels
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2126 handle on any pullback and find support above PL (2121.75) in order to stabilize and absorb residual supply. Initial upside target 2138 – 2141 Central Pivot Zone.
Scenario 2: Bear Camp will work to keep price from getting above 2138 – 2141 Central Pivot Zone and try to drive price lower to test PL (2121.75).
*****Potential for Margin Call Selling if price cannot stabilize and recoup some of prior session’s losses.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN