After erasing last week’s big gains through yesterday’s 5.3% drop, oil prices now have even less to look forward to: the Iran nuclear deal. Tehran’s parliament passed a bill this morning supporting the nuclear accord reached with six world powers, removing a major obstacle to putting the agreement into practice. Should sanctions be lifted, Iran would double its oil exports to 2.3M barrels a day, multiplying tensions in the world’s sensitive oil markets. Crude futures -0.5% to $46.86/bbl.
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:00 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
S&P 500 emini (ES) Bulls held their ground in light holiday trade but could not make any further advancement above 2012 handle. Initial support remains 1998.00 SPOT…Trends remain UP, though pullbacks in price are the normal ebb n flow. Scenario levels outlined in prior DTS 10.12.15 remain in effect today as nothing has altered the current trade dynamics.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2026 based on penetration of prior high (2012.50; Possible LOD = 1972.25 based on average cycle range decline.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2012.50), THEN upside can expand to 2016, followed by 2026.
Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert PH (2012.50), THEN expectation will be for pullback with 3 Day Range with support marked at 1998.00. Violation and conversion of this level opens door for decline targeting 1994.00 3D Pivot.Below this level measures 1990.75, 1987.00, 1984.25.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS