Markets
Minutes from the September FOMC meeting… Many members thought raising rates would be warranted “relatively soon” if the U.S. economy continued to strengthen, but internal divisions remained over the timing of the next move. A few participants also raised concerns that waiting too long could trigger a recession, while more dovish officials wanted more evidence that inflation is firming before hiking interest rates.
In Asia, Japan -0.4% to 16774. Hong Kong -1.6% to 23031. China +0.1% to 3061. India -1.6% to 27643.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -1.2%. Frankfurt -1.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.6%. Crude flat at $50.16. Gold +0.6% to $1260.90.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.74%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:15 PM Fed’s Harker: Economic Outlook
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
PTG Trading
The expected range 2126 – 2138 outlined in prior DTS Briefing 10.12.16 held firm as price paused and consolidated Tuesday’s sell-off. In overnight trade price has continued to sell down below CD1 Low (2126.25) reaching 2116.00 CD2 Maximum Violation Level.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has broken below CD1 Low (2126.25) to reach CD2 Maximum Violation Level (2116.00) and has bounced slightly from extreme low (2113.50). Bulls will need to respond strongly to turn the current negative momentum and find a secure low, which it has not yet found.
*****Potential for Margin Call Selling if price cannot stabilize and recoup some of current losses.
Range Projections and Key Levels
HOD Range Projection: 2134.00; LOD Range Projection: 2110.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2126.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2142.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2144.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 20.35
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2116.00 and stabilize during cash session to get a rally initially targeting 2126 handle (PL). IF this can occur, THEN secondary target measures 2131.75 Central Pivot.
Scenario 2: Bears will look to defend any rally back to 2126 handle…Potential; is elevated for margin call selling if 2116 is re-violated and converted to lower resistance. Deep extreme targets 2110.50 – 2108.25 LOD Range Projection and STATX Zone.
*****Potential for Margin Call Selling if price cannot stabilize and recoup some of prior session’s losses.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN