Trade Strategy 10.15.15


U.S. stock index futures are indicating a higher open, with traders looking to the release of consumer inflation data and a flurry of corporate Q3 results. Although earnings season started off with some weak commentaries, most companies are so far beating on the bottom line. Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX) are due to report before the market opens, and Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) will release results after the bell.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:30 Fed’s Bullard Speech
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
3:30 PM Treasury Budget
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

S&P emini (ES) continued its selling slide yesterday to reach 1983.00 KEY SPOT before buyers stepped-in aggressively to absorb supply. In overnight trade price has rallied back up to 1999.50 SPOT…

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…NORMAL SPILL UP…Odds are favorable (83%) rally back above CD1 Low (1993.25) to fulfill Positive 3 Day Cycle. Price will also need to clear and convert 1999.50 SPOT and then 2008.00 SPOT to shift trade dynamics back to Bull. We will be anticipating 1999.50 SPOT of be a tough nut to crack (Resistance).

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00. Possible HOD = 2006.00; Possible LOD = 1982.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Odds (83%) favor rally to get back above 1993.25 and up to 1999.50 3D Pivot. This has already occurred in overnight trade…So price will need to maintain bid above 1989.75 on any pullback to keep bullish rally alive. IF price converts 1999.50 SPOT, THEN upside targets 2008.00 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Price resistance is currently marked at 1999.50 SPOT…Failure to convert and subsequent violation of 1989.75 SPOT calls into question strength of overnight rally…Below this levels forces additional selling pressure which targets 1982.00 CD2 Violation Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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