S&P hit the magic minus ten-percentage (-10%) decline in wild trade action with range hitting 66 handles and VIX index 26. Last time these metrics were seen was during the 2008 – 09 financial crisis. European Economy faltering, China and Asian Demand waning, Crude Oil Crashing, ISIS (ISIL) terrorizing, and the “wild card” Ebola Outbreak. Is there any good news to be reported? Fear tends to be self-fulfilling and self-sustaining until the last seller is finally “sold-out”. No one knows for sure when that will be, but having sold down 10% may provide the Market some cushion to stabilize. Keep your chinstraps tightened.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3); Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Range = 21.25; Possible High = 1884 based upon average 3D Rally; Possible Low = 1803 – 1801 based upon violation of CD2 Low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences
Today’s Trade Hypotheses:
Scenario 1: IF price can hold the current low (1813.00), THEN there is 45% chance of rallying initial target 1853 handle. Above this level targets 3D CPZ 1866 – 1870.50. Further strength above this zone there are levels within TargetMaster Range Breakout (1881.50) and STATX Zone (1883.25 – 1891.50)
Scenario 2: IF PDL (1813.00) is violated and converted, THEN there is a 45% chance of reaching 1801 handle.
Trade Strategy: With intra-day volatility on the rise with swings of increased magnitude in either direction, our main trade strategy will be to remain open and flexible to two-side trade, both long/short from key Decision Point Pivots (DPP). As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS