Trade Strategy 10.2.17

Markets
 
U.S. Treasury yields are at their highest in almost 12 weeks, with the 10-year at 2.37%, pushing the dollar half a percent higher against a basket of currencies. Firming expectations of a third interest rate hike this year, data pointing to steady U.S. growth and talk of a potentially more hawkish successor to Fed Chair Janet Yellen all appear to be contributing to the movement.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India closed. 
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -1.5% to $50.91. Gold -0.7% to $1276.20. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 2.37%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar 

9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending

PTG Trading

S&P 500 Index begins the 4th Quarter at all-time highs as investor appetite for stocks continue unabated. Historical low volatility with VIX sub-ten (10) for expended periods, average true range near 10 and CNN Money Fear & Greed Index at 85 (Extreme Greed), Treasury Yields gradually rising and possible Tax Reform. For Bulls this combination is essentially investing nirvana. 

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…This cycle’s rally which began with shallow decline on CD1 continues in overnight trade as price reached minimum Cycle Target of 2523…Higher Cycle Target measures 2530.35. It would take a violation and conversion of prior week’s low (2504.75) potentially halt to current up swing.

STAY NIMBLE and ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOPS.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2527.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2513.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2504.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2506.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2530.35; 10 Day Average True Range: 10.25; VIX: 9.54

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December 2017 (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1:  IF price clears and converts PH (2517.75), THEN upside targets 2523.00 minimum 3 Day Cycle Target. Additional expansion levels measure 2533.50…2539.35.

Scenario 2:  IF price violates and converts 2512- 14 zone to lower resistance, THEN initial downside targets 2510.50, followed by 2508 – 05 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN