Trade Strategy 10.21.15


Upsetting an otherwise tranquil October, China’s stock market erased morning gains and suddenly fell in late trading, bringing back recent memories of afternoon sell-offs in the broader market. The Shanghai Composite ended the session down 3.5%, its biggest fall since September 15. As of Tuesday, the index was up more than 12% this month and was trading at an eight-week high.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

PTG Trading

S&P emini (ES) continues in bullish up channel consolidation above 2018 KEY SPOT as money managers and traders absorb corporate earnings releases. In overnight trade, price has come within a whisker of Average Cycle Target 2034.75.

Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2040.50 (CD1 Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 2009.50 (Average Cycle Range Decline)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and convert PH (2031.50) THEN initial upside targets 2034.75, followed by 2040.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2031.50) opens door to decline initially targeting 2018…Violation and conversion of this level targets 2015, then 2012 and 2008 SPOTs.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”


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