Although the Fed is largely expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, will there be anything for investors to digest in terms of the timing of an upcoming hike? Chairwoman Janet Yellen isn’t scheduled to hold a press conference following the meeting and officials won’t release updated economic projections, but the central bank’s new policy statement could offer some clues. What to watch: References to global economic headwinds, slower domestic growth, inflation targets and more hawkish dissent.
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $15B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
Price continued it’s slow stealthy decline which began on Cycle Day 1 to reach projected support 2053.00 Three-Day Central Pivot. Buyers stepped-in absorbed sellers and by settlement rallied back to highs of session. This was textbook Cycle Day 2 trade action.
Overnight trade has slight bullish bias ahead of FED Announcement. Price will need to clear and convert 2066 SPOT for continuation trade higher.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL UP…There is plenty of room to continue the rally to reach upper price targets. Levels to be mindful of are: 2071.75…2078.00…2083.50.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 2083.50 (Cycle Target); Possible LOD = 2040.50 (CD3 Violation).
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2063.75, THEN initial upside targets 2066.50…Above this level targets 2071.75 SPOT. Additional upside targets are: 2078.00 and 2083.50.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2063.75) and subsequent violation of CD1 Low (2057.50) opens doors to deeper decline targeting 2053.50 – 2051.25 STATX Zone. Below this zone measures 2042.75 – 2038.25.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS