Trade Strategy 10.30.19

Markets

Monetary policy will be front and center for investors today, and futures are trading sideways – after failing to make any major moves on Tuesday – before the big Fed decision. While divisions remain on the FOMC about the need to lower borrowing costs further, the committee is expected to cut interest for the third time this year (to a new range of between 1.5% and 1.75%), while signaling that it is done for now. Watch for Jerome Powell’s presser to see if he takes a page from the Greenspan playbook. His mentor cut rates three times in mid-cycle adjustments in 1995-1996, and again in 1998, to counter economic risks.

In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -0.5%. India +0.5%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.1% to $55.47. Gold +0.2% to $1493.50. Bitcoin -1.6% to $9240.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 1.83%

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

8:15ADP Jobs Report
8:30GDP Q3
8:30Treasury Refunding Quarterly Announcement
10:00State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00Survey of Business Uncertainty
2:00 PMFOMC Announcement
2:00 PMChairman Press Conference

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 3004. Average Range for CD1 is 42.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%

CD1 Range High = 3074.50       CD1 Range Low = 2996.00         CD1 Range Avg = 42.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 3036, THEN initial upside targets 3046 – 3053 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 3036, THEN initial downside targets 3022 – 3017 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2019 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3053.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3017.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3030.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3086.00; 10 Day Average True Range 21.28; VIX: 13.50

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7982.00.  Average Range for CD1 is 135.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%

CD1 Range High =8182.00           CD1 Range Low = 7935.00          CD1 Range Avg = 135.25

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 8056, THEN initial upside targets 8100 – 8133 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 8056, THEN initial downside targets 8020 – 7996 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2019 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 8133.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7984.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8056.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 8222.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 86.77 VIX: 13.50

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN