Trade Strategy 10.4.18

Markets
 
A large rise in U.S. Treasury yields is pulling global bond yields higher across the board and boosted the dollar, while stocks fell in response. The 10-year Treasury note is now at its highest level since mid-2011, up 7 bps to 3.23%, as recent comments from Federal officials signaled more rate hikes are on the horizon. Economic figures pointing to strength in the U.S. economy are also causing markets to reassess how far the Fed’s tightening cycle will go.
 
In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -1.7%. China closed. India -2.2%
In Europe, at midday, London -1%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -0.2%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude -0.2% to $76.24. Gold flat at $1202.60. Bitcoin +1.2% to $6546. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -7 bps to 3.23%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:15 Randal Quarles: “Trends in Urban and Rural Community Banks”
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Factory Orders
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2924.25 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 23.00 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2936.50        CD1 Range Low = 2903.00         CD1 Range Avg = 23.00 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2919, THEN upside targets 2922 – 2924 zone, followed by 22929.25 – 2931.25 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2919, THEN downside targets 2913.00 CD1 Violation Level, followed by 2908 – 2906 Statistical Range Extremes.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2931.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2908.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2930.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2941.50; 10 Day Average True Range 18.00; VIX: 12.81

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7616.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 96.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 7799          CD1 Range Low = 7600          CD1 Range Avg = 96.25

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7616, THEN upside targets 7646 (PL), followed by 7658.25 – 7666.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 7646 (PL), THEN dowside target 7600 – 7595 CD1 Range Violation Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7676.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7576.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7675.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7712.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 74.50; VIX: 12.81

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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