Trade Strategy 10.5.18

Markets
 
The U.S. economy likely created jobs at a brisk clip in September, with anticipated job gains of 191,000 matching the monthly average for the past three months, and the unemployment rate probably falling to an 18-year low of 3.8%. Further suggesting gradual interest rates increases from the Fed, the non-farm payrolls data is expected to show a steady rise in wages, implying moderate inflation pressures and easing concerns about the economy overheating.
 
In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China closed. India -2.3%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.6%
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.4% to $74.62. Gold +0.3% to $1205.50. Bitcoin -0.2% to $6544. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bps to 3.2%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 International Trade
12:30 PM Fed’s Kaplan speech
12:30 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Sharp sell-off in prior session exceeded Cycle Day 1 extreme parameters and found some support near 50 day sma (2886). This level will be marked as a “key buy response” level which may be retested in the coming sessions. For today, rally off deep low has rebounded back to 2916 3 Day Cycle target and currently trading at 2908 Central Pivot. Expectation would be for continued search for new balance zone.

CD2 Range High = 2919.50          CD2 Range Low = 2992.50         CD2 Range Avg = 18.75

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2908, THEN upside targets 2916 – 2919 zone. Range High and 3D Central Pivot overlap @ 2923 handle.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2908, THEN downside targets 2896 – 2893 Range Low zone, with possible re-test of 2887.75 (CD1 Low) for surety.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2923.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2893.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2887.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2923.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2916.00; 10 Day Average True Range 22.50; VIX: 14.37

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Sharp sell-off in prior session exceeded Cycle Day 1 extreme parameters and found responsive buyers near key support (7450). This level will be marked as a “key buy response” level which may be retested in the coming sessions. For today, rally off deep low has rebounded back to 7533.75 – 7443.75  Central Pivot Zone. Expectation would be for continued search for new balance zone.

CD2 Range High = 7531.75         CD2 Range Low = 7487.75          CD2 Range Avg = 83.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7500, THEN upside potential targets 2933 – 2953 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7500, THEN downside potential targets 7487 – 7475 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7578.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7442.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7456.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7625.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7520.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 98.50; VIX: 14.37

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN