Trade Strategy 10.8.18

Markets
 
U.S. traders looking to take a day off for Columbus Day will be disappointed to find out that the stock markets will remain open. While equity investors will have to keep their eyes on their portfolios, the majority of banks and credit unions, as well as bond markets, will be closed. The risk-off sentiment that surfaced last week amid rising Treasury yields is still active, with U.S. stock index futures declining overnight before a busy week of American government debt sales.
 
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -1.4%. China -3.7%. India +0.3%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.8%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -1.1% to $73.51. Gold -0.7% to $1197.80. Bitcoin -0.2% to $6567. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 3.23%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Early bounce during Nikkei 225 open faded throughout Shanghai & Euro Sessions, currently hovering near Cycle Day 1 Low (2887.75). Priced has traded above this level and as such completes Positive 3 Day Cycle. Columbus Day holiday today with expectation for lighter than average trade and more balancing action.

No scheduled U.S. economic news today…Earnings season will kick off essentially on Friday with some banks reporting…a few prior but insignificant.

CD3 Range High = 2905.00          CD3 Range Low = 2875.50          CD3 Range Avg = 20.50 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2895, THEN upside targets 2900 – 2908 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2895, THEN downside targets 2880 – layered down to 2873 -2869 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2908.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2873.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2887.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2912.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2916.00; 10 Day Average True Range 25.50; VIX: 16.15

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Early bounce during Nikkei 225 open faded throughout Shanghai & Euro Sessions, currently hovering near 7400 support. Priced has yet to trade above CD1 Low (7456.50) and as such has NOT completed Positive 3 Day Cycle. Columbus Day holiday today with expectation for lighter than average trade and more balancing action.

CD3 Range High = 7472.50         CD3 Range Low = 7395.50          CD3 Range Avg = 85.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7440, THEN upside targets 7456.50 (CD1 Low), followed by 7473 CD3 range target.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7440, THEN downside targets 7395.50 CD3 range low, followed by 7362.50 – 7347.50 should deeper sell-down occur.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7501.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7333.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7456.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7550.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7566.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 114.50; VIX: 16.15

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN