Trade Strategy 10.9.18

Markets
 
All eyes are on U.S. Treasuries again as trading reopened in the wake of last week’s selloff and a bond market holiday on Monday. The benchmark 10-year yield crept up to a fresh seven-year high, advancing past 3.26%, marking an increase of about 80 basis points from the start of 2018. U.S. stock index futures look poised for a fourth day of declines in response, down 0.5%, as traders gear up for $230B of Treasury auctions this week.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong -0.1%. China +0.2%. India -0.5%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.5%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude +0.7% to $74.81. Gold +0.1% to $1189.60. Bitcoin -0.2% to $6608. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 3.26%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Fed’s Evans Speech
9:15 PM Fed’s Williams: Monetary Policy

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2873.25. Average Range for CD1 is 23.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2901.75        CD1 Range Low = 2270.50         CD1 Range Avg = 23.75 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2885 (Central Pivot), THEN upside targets 2894 50 – 2897.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. STATX Zone measures 2901.75 – 2905.50

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2885 (Central Pivot), THEN downside targets 2875.50 – 2873.25 CD1 Average Decline Zone. STATX Zone measures 2869.50 – 2865.50

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2904.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2868.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2896.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2905.00; 10 Day Average True Range 26.00; VIX: 16.87

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7354.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 99.50 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 7448.75          CD1 Range Low = 7347.25          CD1 Range Avg = 99.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7375 (Central Pivot), THEN upside targets 7400 – 7420  zone. STATX Zone measures 7456.25 – 7475.25.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7375 (Central Pivot), THEN downside targets 7354.00 – 7344.50 CD1 Average Decline Zone. STATX Zone measures 7294.75 – 7275.75.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7472.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7277.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7453.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7456.75; 10 Day Average True Range: 121.50; VIX: 16.87

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN