Investors are getting ready to digest another critical jobs report that will heavily shape whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates when its policy makers meet in mid-December. With speeches from several Fed officials suggesting a low bar for a December hike, economists say job gains above 150,000 in October and November would be sufficient for the central bank to lift benchmark borrowing costs from near zero. The report, which is also expected to show an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1%, will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
7:30 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. economy and monetary policy
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:15 PM Fed’s Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard: Unconventional monetary policy
Markets continued in their holding pattern with no major movement ahead of the all important Employment Report (NFP) this morning.
Price held 2103.50 KEY SPOT Resistance on the upside and 2086 handle Support on the downside, settling Neutral and at Volume Trend Mid Point (VTMP). Overnight trade has price within a 5 handle range with very light volume.
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…With today’s NFP Report price may experience increased volatility early on reaction to report.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Decline = 34.25; Possible HOD = 2113.50 CD1 Penetration Level; Possible LOD = 2083.00 Average Decline.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2104.75), THEN upside projects 2107.50 – 2108.50 STATX Zone. Above this zone targets 2113.50 CD1 Penetration Level. Expanded upside measures 2121.50.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2091.50 SPOT, THEN downside projects 2084.50 – 2082.00 STATX Zone. Below this zone opens door to test 2077.50 YELL.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS