S&P e-mini continued its upward momentum trajectory achieving Cycle Expansion Price Target of 2028.25, as laid out in Thursday’s DTS: Trade Strategy 11.06.14 Friday is the “all-important” Non-Farm Payroll Report…Bulls are firmly in control, so any disappointment in the NFP will induce profit-taking and possible a deep reversal…
Friday also begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price closed at HOD, so there could be residual buying momentum before any decline begins. Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Range = 22.00; Possible Low = 2006.50 based upon Average Decline; Possible High = 2017.50 based upon clearing and converting CD3 high.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Scenario 1: IF bullish price momentum continues and PDH (2028.50) is cleared and converted, THEN upside price Targets measure 2035.75 – 2037.50.
Scenario 2: Failure to converted PDH (2028.50), THEN expectation is for profit-taking to unfold, initially targeting 2020 – 22 zone…Violation of this zone targets 2010 – 2012 zone, with additional range targets 2006.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS