Global shares fell sharply again today after the S&P 500 ended lower YTD for the first time since Oct. 22 and the Dow Jones dropped more than 250 points. Friday the 13th? Not really. Commodity prices are weighing heavily on the markets, following yesterday’s U.S. stockpiles data showing a build 4x above market expectations, while Fed policymakers argued that inflation should rebound and lined up behind a likely December rate hike.
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Producer Price Index
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:45 Fed’s Mester: Economy and Monetary Policy
Violation of the 2077.50 (YELL) and subsequent FAILURE to recover above this key level was a key “tell”, as well as Bearish shift in the 3D Central Pivot Zone, set the stage for long liquidation. Violation and conversion of Cycle Day 1 Low confirmed broken structure as price decline exceeded our lowest price projections for the session.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…This Cycle appears to become a “failed” unless price can recover above CD1 Low (2067.75) prior to the closing bell. That seems to be a tall task considering how deep yesterday’s decline has extended…Of course stranger things have happened.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2058.50; Possible LOD = 2023.00
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price is currently trading below PL (2040.00) pre-cash market…Price will need to get back above and hold this level for an increased chance of rallying higher. IF this can occur, THEN initial upside projection is 2046.00, followed by 2052.50 Central Pivot. Above this level targets 2058.50 and HOD projection.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PL (2040.00) continues pressure on Bulls and potential increased margin selling. Continued momentum to downside measures 2033.50 – 2028.00 STATX Zone. Below this zone targets 2021.50 SPOT, down to 2015.00 – 2011.50 zone.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS