Trade Strategy 11.16.16

Markets

Oil rose around 6% yesterday, its best one day performance since April, on renewed hopes of an OPEC deal to cut production. But prices are now dipping lower after the IEA left its supply and demand forecasts unchanged despite the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement entering into force. “The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand,” the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook.

In Asia, Japan +1.1% to 17862. Hong Kong -0.2% to 22280. China -0.1% to 3205. India flat at 26298.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude -1.3% to $45.21. Gold -0.1% to $1223.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 2.28%

 (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
7:30 Fed’s Kashkari speech
8:30 Producer Price Index
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital

PTG Trading

Shallow decline on CD1 and a strong hold of key 2162 handle which we outlined in prior DTS Briefing 11.15.16 lead to late day rally which hit upside target of 2184 handle.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has effectively hit 3 Day Cycle Target of 2183 – 84 zone, as such, we will mark this zone as KEY RESISTANCE for today’s session.

Price will need to convert this zone for continued expansion, targeting 2188 – 2194 extreme zone. Expectation for today will be for some “back n fill” back into prior day’s range with 2162 handle marked as KEY SUPPORT. The breakpoint zone of 2168 – 70 will be first test of bulls sustainability.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD Range Projection: 2199.00; LOD Range Projection: 2160.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2158.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2165.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2183.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 25.13

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price holds 2168 – 70 breakpoint zone on pullback, THEN bulls remain dominant, with potential of pushing back higher to 2183 – 84 zone. Above this zone and continued expansion can unfold targeting 2186 – 2188 zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold at or above 2168 – 70 zone will be first kink in bulls armour…This would suggest possible deeper pullback testing 2162 key support. Below this level opens door for accelerated selling targeting 2155 handle.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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