World shares are continuing their climb higher after minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting strengthened expectations for a rate hike in December, a move that would remove lingering uncertainty in the financial markets. “It may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process at the next meeting,” according to the FOMC’s October get-together. Officials from the gathering are likely to further comment on the statement later this afternoon, with speeches from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. (Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Markets paused on Tuesday to consolidate and re-energize for continuation up leg in prior Trading Session. Odds now have increased to 72% likelihood of December interest rate hike and markets are responding positively, as this infers strengthening economic conditions.
Today begins new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Residual momentum has pushed futures slightly above PH (2082.50) in overnight trade. Odds (72%) favor a decline during the session of minimum of 10 handles, so with prices at relative extreme levels, we will be cautious on new longs and be on alert for price reversal signals.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Decline = 22.00; Max Average Decline = 26.50; Possible HOD = 2091.50 ; Possible LOD = 2056.25
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF Price clears and converts PH (2082.50), THEN initial upside targets 2092.50…Above this level measures 2095.50 SPOT, 2098.00, 2100.00 SPOT.
Scenario 1: Failure to convert PH (2082.50) increase odds of pullback initially targeting 2077.50 (YELL), followed by 2075.50 SPOT and 2068.00 Central Pivot.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS