Trade Strategy 11.20.19

Markets

Global markets fall back

Asian stocks fell back after President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods reverberated across the Pacific Ocean. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was off 0.75%. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.6% and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped dropped 1.2% after a financial regulator cracked down on Westpac Banking (NYSE:WBK). Meanwhile, European stocks are also having a soft day, with the Stoxx 600 Index slipping 0.7%. U.S. stock futures are pointing lower, two days removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index carving out new record highs

Fed watch

The Federal Reserve is due to release minutes today of its last meeting in a development that will pull back the curtain on just how much support there is for a long pause before any further interest rate actions. Economists will also find out if Jerome Powell’s view that it would take a “material reassessment” before rates are cut again is on target with the rest of the committee. The consensus view is that the Federal Reserve is right where it wants to be going into an election year as long as no data surprises occur.

In Asia, Japan -0.62%. Hong Kong -0.75%. China -0.78%. India +0.49%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.36%. Paris -0.75%. Frankfurt -1.01%.
Futures at 6:00, Dow -0.42%. S&P -0.38%. Nasdaq -0.49%. Crude -0.11% to $55.41. Gold +0.14% to $1,476.30. Bitcoin -1.03% to $8.102.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4.3 bps to 1.745%.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

10:30EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PMFOMC minutes

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 3106.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 32.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%

NOTE: CD1 Average Decline Target (3106) is fulfilled and buyers have responded during overnight trade. As such this level is today’s Line-In-Sand (LIS) Key Decision Point.

CD1 Range High = 3128.00       CD1 Range Low = 3092.00         CD1 Range Avg = 32.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 3106, THEN initial upside targets 3112 – 3118 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 3106, THEN initial downside targets 3100 – 3098 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2019 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3122.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3099.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3118.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3145.00; 10 Day Average True Range 17.73; VIX: 13.39

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 8290.50.  Average Range for CD1 is 108.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%

CD1 Range High =8350.00           CD1 Range Low = 8275.00          CD1 Range Avg = 108.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 8304, THEN initial upside targets 8320 – 8327 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 8304, THEN initial downside targets 8290 – 8274 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2019 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 8351.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8274.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8324.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 8364.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 59.83; VIX: 13.39

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN