Trade Strategy 11.23.18

Markets
 
U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a weaker open, with an abbreviated trading session on tap and many traders absent from their desks. From a stock market perspective, history suggests this is a very good time for retail stocks, but forecasts may differ this year due to the recent risk-off sentiment. Since 2007, the week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains 5%.
 
Steep losses were seen in Chinese markets ahead of the weekend, with the Shanghai Composite slipping 2.5%, as lingering trade war tensions added to worries about global growth.
 
Oil prices have tumbled to 2018 lows, falling 2.6% to $53.20/bbl, triggering expectations that OPEC will start withholding supply after a meeting planned for Dec. 6. Amid the plunge, Brent and WTI price divergence has jumped in November to approach levels not seen since the market slump of 2014-2016. Surging North American supply appears to be clogging the system, while global markets are somewhat tighter, in part because of reduced exports from Iran.
 
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -2.5%. India closed. 
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -2.6% to $53.20. Gold -0.4% to $1223.30. Bitcoin -3.3% to $4312. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 3.06%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

9:45 PMI Composite Flash
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:
 

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2601.00. Average Range for CD1 is 41.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2656.75       CD1 Range Low = 2623.00         CD1 Range Avg = 41.50 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2638, THEN upside targets 2648.25 – 2652.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2638, THEN downside targets 2624.25 – 2620.75 STATX Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2677.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2602.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2648.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2660.50; 10 Day Average True Range 43.75; VIX: 21.60

Click Here

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6395.50. Average Range for CD1 is 154.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 6571.25          CD1 Range Low = 6512.00          CD1 Range Avg = 154.25

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 6542, THEN upside targets 6556 – 6563.50 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 6542, THEN downside targets 6496.00 – 6485.25 STATX Zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6673.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6410.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6556.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6660.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 155.00; VIX: 21.60

Click Here

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN